Key Points

References

Reference_description_with_linked_URLs_________________________	Notes___________________________________________________________________

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-bubble-bursting-poses-164401620.html wef-economy-2021-Stock market bubble bursting poses biggest risk to global economy.pdf	WEF 2021 Economy survey results asset bubble threats**
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/glossary-federal-reserves-emergency-measures-coronavirus-bazookas-120337473.html	200405 - Federal Reserve pumps financial system

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4281031-puzzle-pieces-finally-come-together?ifp=0	Economy moving forward ok if Trump stay in and Republicans hold Senate and inflation will increase shifting returns
https://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/tools-of-the-trade/	7 Technical Indicators for Market Trade Plans - investopedia


Metrics


Tools

Key Concepts

virus impact on economy is long-term
key services, infrastructure, medical, food chains will increase in volume
other businesses will drop
stock market has not differentiated yet between the new model on stronger vs weaker businesses

Thomas Sowell - insightful economist

30-priceless-quotes-from-the-great-thomas-sowell/

“Some things are believed because they are demonstrably true. But many other things are believed simply because they have been asserted repeatedly—and repetition has been accepted as a substitute for evidence.”
<< Trump Russia collusion hoax started by Hillary Clinton
“I have never understood why it is ‘greed’ to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else’s money.”
“Back in my old neighborhood, there was a special contempt for the kind of guy who was always trying to get two other guys to fight each other. Today, it is considered a great contribution to society to incite consumers against producers, tenants against landlords, women against men, and the races against each other.”division vs unity << see media and Democrats today
“It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.” << Congress and the President defined
"Give a man a fish and he will ask for tartar sauce and French fries! Moreover, some politician who wants his vote will declare all these things to be among his ‘basic rights.’” << Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and the Squad
“The real goal should be reduced government spending, rather than balanced budgets achieved by ever rising tax rates to cover ever rising spending.”
“Competition does a much more effective job than government at protecting consumers.”
“The big divide in this country is not between Democrats and Republicans, or women and men, but between talkers and doers.”
“If you have always believed that everyone should play by the same rules and be judged by the same standards, that would have gotten you labeled a radical 60 years ago, a liberal 30 years ago and a racist today.” << equality vs equity
“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.” << The Federal government always spends more than it can afford
“Capitalism knows only one color: that color is green [the color of money]; all else is necessarily subservient to it, hence, race, gender and ethnicity cannot be considered within it.” << capitalism is not racist
“When people get used to preferential treatment, equal treatment seems like discrimination.” << DEI

more thomas-sowell-quotes

The problem isn't that Johnny can't read. The problem isn't even that Johnny can't think. The problem is that Johnny doesn't know what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling.
The word 'racism' is like ketchup. It can be put on practically anything - and demanding evidence makes you a 'racist.'
Liberalism is totalitarianism with a human face.
You will never understand bureaucracies until you understand that for bureaucrats procedure is everything and outcomes are nothing
Immigration laws are the only laws that are discussed in terms of how to help people who break them.
Freedom has cost too much blood and agony to be relinquished at the cheap price of rhetoric.
It is a way to take people's wealth from them without having to openly raise taxes. Inflation is the most universal tax of all.
see Biden's real median per capita income impact
The most fundamental fact about the ideas of the political left is that they do not work. Therefore we should not be surprised to find the left concentrated in institutions where ideas do not have to work in order to survive.
Without a moral framework, there is nothing left but immediate self-indulgence by some and the path of least resistance by others. Neither can sustain a free society.
<< so what IS the moral framework for the US today?
As for gun control advocates, I have no hope whatever that any facts whatever will make the slightest dent in their thinking - or lack of thinking.
<< gun control is the goal for those liberals, not managing and preventing those who commit violence
Too much of what is called 'education' is little more than an expensive isolation from reality.
Would you bet your paycheck on a weather forecast for tomorrow? If not, then why should this country bet billions on global warming predictions that have even less foundation?
On Slavery >> The people made worse off by slavery were those who were enslaved. Their descendants would have been worse off today if born in Africa instead of America. Put differently, the terrible fate of their ancestors benefitted them.
If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.
<< crime prevention and prosecution make a difference
Why governments need to be controlled by voters >>
Being willing to donate the taxpayers' money is not the same as being willing to put your own money where your mouth is.
The real goal should be reduced government spending, rather than balanced budgets achieved by ever rising tax rates to cover ever rising spending.
<< your vote should make the government accountable to limit spending just like you have to manage yours
Although the big word on the left is 'compassion,' the big agenda on the left is dependency.
on big government >>
Life in general has never been even close to fair, so the pretense that the government can make it fair is a valuable and inexhaustible asset to politicians who want to expand government.
on illegal immgration >>
Stopping illegal immigration would mean that wages would have to rise to a level where Americans would want the jobs currently taken by illegal aliens.
<< of course illegal immigration helps keep those wages down ...
is it news ?? >>
If people in the media cannot decide whether they are in the business of reporting news or manufacturing propaganda, it is all the more important that the public understand that difference, and choose their news sources accordingly.
is diversity important ?? >>
The next time some academics tell you how important diversity is, ask how many Republicans there are in their sociology department.
why children need to be raised with values and good examples for expectations, consequences >>
Each new generation born is in effect an invasion of civilization by little barbarians, who must be civilized before it is too late.
multiculturalism ( almost ) >>
What 'multiculturalism' boils down to is that you can praise any culture in the world except Western culture - and you cannot blame any culture in the world except Western culture.
healthcare - who pays and how much ?? >>
It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it.
is woke the opposite of democracy ?? >>
The most basic question is not what is best, but who shall decide what is best.
why parents need to be involved in public school curriculums >>
Education is not merely neglected in many of our schools today, but is replaced to a great extent by ideological indoctrination.
how we need to fight terrorists >>
Even the Soviet Union, with its huge nuclear arsenal, was a threat that could be deterred by the prospect of retaliation. But suicide bombers cannot be deterred. They can only be annihilated - preemptively and unilaterally, if necessary.
open minded or not ?? >>
Liberals seem to assume that, if you don't believe in their particular political solutions, then you don't really care about the people that they claim to want to help.
explain why the Left will never close the border to illegals needing welfare >>
The more people who are dependent on government handouts, the more votes the left can depend on for an ever-expanding welfare state.
the curse of low expectations from liberals >>
The time is long overdue to stop looking for progress through racial or ethnic leaders. Such leaders have too many incentives to promote polarizing attitudes and actions that are counterproductive for minorities and disastrous for the country.
who tells stories to avoid facts ?? >>
Facts are not liberals' strong suit. Rhetoric is.
difference between catastrophic help and welfare >>
Helping those who have been struck by unforeseeable misfortunes is fundamentally different from making dependency a way of life.
do racial admission policies help or hurt ?? >>
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology accepts blacks in the top ten percent of students, but at MIT this puts them in the bottom ten percent of the class.
when does it make sense for government to spend more money ?? >>
Those who cry out that the government should 'do something' never even ask for data on what has actually happened when the government did something, compared to what actually happened when the government did nothing.
does CRT make sense ?? >>
Creating whole departments of ethnic, gender, and other 'studies' was part of the price of academic peace. All too often, these 'studies' are about propaganda rather than serious education.
how government makes life fair spending your money >>
n liberal logic, if life is unfair then the answer is to turn more tax money over to politicians, to spend in ways that will increase their chances of getting reelected.
what schools deliver >>
Our schools and colleges are turning out people who cannot feel fulfilled unless they are telling other people what to do.
who actually helps others the most? look at expectations and consequences >>
One of the most pervasive political visions of our time is the vision of liberals as compassionate and conservatives as less caring.
does everyone in the world have a right to US taxpayer welfare ?? >>
Do all children have some inherent right to live in America if they have done nothing wrong? If not, then why should the children of illegal immigrants have such a right?
what is the road to prosperity from poverty for most ?? >>
Groups that rose from poverty to prosperity seldom did so by having their own racial or ethnic leaders to follow.
should voters be required to know statistics ?? >>
All too often when liberals cite statistics, they forget the statisticians' warning that correlation is not causation.
who does ? who should ? pay taxes >>
All the political angst and moral melodrama about getting 'the rich' to pay 'their fair share' is part of a big charade. This is not about economics, it is about politics.
is the welfare state the right answer ?? >>
The welfare state is not really about the welfare of the masses. It is about the egos of the elites.
who is responsible for your situation in life ?? >>
In various countries and times, leaders of groups that lagged behind, economically and educationally, have taught their followers to blame all their problems on other people - and to hate those other people.
those who fail to learn from history will repeat it >>
President Obama seems completely unaware of how many of the policies he is trying to impose have been tried before, in many times and places around the world, and have failed time and again.
more liberals focus on OPM - other peope's money >>
People who identify themselves as conservatives donate money to charity more often than people who identify themselves as liberals. They donate more money and a higher percentage of their incomes.
both economic tarriffs and sanctions have negative consequences as well - think carefully what you prortect >>
People who identify themselves as conservatives donate money to charity more often than people who identify themselves as liberals. They donate more money and a higher percentage of their incomes.
government programs help the government .. sometimes others too >>
Mystical references to society and its programs to help may warm the hearts of the gullible but what it really means is putting more power in the hands of bureaucrats.
why liberal price control programs fail vs making markets more open >>
A shortage is a sign that somebody is keeping the price artificially lower than it would be if supply and demand were allowed to operate freely.
Why have Democrats been wrong about raising taxes much of the time ?? >>
The Congressional Budget Office has been embarrassed repeatedly by making projections based on the assumption that tax revenues and tax rates move in the same direction. << Democrats would never have lowered the US corporate tax rate from 35%. Trump did in 2017 to 15% and increased tax revenues from corporations for the US
have todays 2 national political parties managed to effectively eliminate what the majority wants ??

Management of Reserve Currencies and Economic health of working and middle class in the US

The article below discusses the petrodollar - a seeming unimportant problem to US citizens. It's a "canary in the coal mine" warning on future economic problems.

The 2 critical items no US President will make a priority ever:

1>> effective management of the world's reserve currency ( measurable by the percent of US debt purchased by foreign governments at Treasury auctions ). No President focused on this but Biden team did zero as the problem increased.

2>> financial health of the working and middle class to afford life ( given income, inflation, costs ) measured by the real median per capita increase in US incomes ( NOT average ). Under the Biden team, this declined for the first time in 40 years.

This is a "tipping" point problem ( unlike climate change which is slow and progressive ).

As the dollar stops being the reserve currency in the World ( the decline of the petrodollar concept below is happening over the next few years during Harris' administration.) the combination of continued US government deficits and the loss of the reserve currency will raise inflation, interest rates and taxes.

Democrats rarely understand economics or trade properly. Republicans may understand but rarely take the right actions.

Instead of managing the reserve currency problem to the benefit of the US, your Democrat team has no idea how to do that except to report on it ( which they have occasionally noticed and commented ). That is not management of the problem. They have no idea how to do that effectively.

What are the impacts for the US and working & middle class with the dollar dropping quickly as a reserve currency?

The easiest to see will be the net impact on US interest rates outside the control of the Federal Reserve. Democrats will raise your taxes BUT won't dramatically reduce the deficit in doing so. That means they will need foreign governments to buy US debt to keep us afloat. We have seen 2 auctions this year for US debt that did not go well ( rates jumped ). A good Federal government ( not ours ) would focus on the reserve currency solution as a top priority. The Harrris administration also needs to cut the deficit ( NOT the debt - they are different ). Unless the deficit shrinks dramatically through an expanding economy ( not inflation ), welfare for non US citizens ends, costs from increased crime are reduced through enforcement, healthcare costs managed, some MINOR adjustments in corporate and personal tax rates for wealthy are made, welfare transfer payments are capped, medicaid has some work requirements adjusted, public education improves without raising the cost, sustainable jobs are created to employ the existing population ( given the job threats of automation and trade deficits ) the risk to the economic health of working and middle class families over the next 5 years will be very high.

Beware of the least intelligent people in your government ( Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey - who think paying tax on unrealized asset gains should happen ) leading government financial policies. They have little understanding of the negative impacts to working & middle class people who are part of unions, government or in IRA and 401K programs.

While the world clearly does not need MAGA programs on Project 2025 or Agenda 47 for the bulk of those items, the Democrat program will likely continue to hurt working & middle class more than poor or rich who both did better under Biden. Poor people ( 20% of the population got 4% of the income BEFORE welfare but 8% after welfare payments made ).

Yes this analysis exists nowhere else. Not in Democrats, not in MAGA, not in the media. The data behind this is easy to access on US Federal government web sites. Most people, the media and your elected representatives don't really do their homework on available government data. I know about 5 smart people in finance ( none in media ) that understand the threat and the opportunity to manage the impact of reserve currency problems effectively ( Jurien Timmer from Fidelity is one ).

A year from now ( 2026 ), look at the top 2 items I focused on to see IF they have improved. Unlikely

Key Market Trends

US Economy - Monetary Policy

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478590-fed-is-ignoring-the-demand-for-money?mail_subject=the-fed-is-ignoring-the-demand-for-money&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

Increasing interest rates through Federal Funds discount increases the cost of loans to businesses raising prices to some degree
Increasing bank capital reserves through FDIC increases the cost of loans to businesses raising prices to some degree
Issuing US debt purchased by the US Treasury is printing money that lowers the value of money quickly raising prices

US Economy - Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy can increase or decrease deficits

Since 2008, Fiscal policy has been out of control compared to earlier years EXCEPT when George H Bush was President and deficits rose quickly

Impacts of large Fiscal deficits

Taxes not covering increased spending
Higher percentage of people in the economy are not paying taxes ( eg not working or ? )
Higher tax breaks have been given to rich people
Higher tax breaks have been given to working people ( working and middle class ) – ( rarely? )
High increase in social programs ( are they justified ? )
High increase in illegal immigrants with high costs and low tax contributions
High increases in defense spending ( are they justified ? what are threats now and going forward? )
High increases in other costs ( subsidies for green energy, oil, etc ) ( are they justified ? )
High increases in foreign aid spending ( are they justified ? eg Iran treaty by Obama and Kerry was $400B cash )
High increases in crime creates real economic losses and higher insurance costs everywhere
Lower efficiency of money spent on education to achieve academic and trade skills ( how can efficiency be improved ? )
Should couples with more children receive more benefits than those with less? why?

US Federal Budgets - Surplus and Deficits by Year

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200410/surplus-or-deficit-of-the-us-governments-budget-since-2000/

Why Fact Checks don't correct misinformation - deficit example

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EsoVQ5J-CdlLqrvn3i3kSlOidtqD2m1E/edit?gid=302113056#gid=302113056

US Deficits under	Total Deficit Increase (Trillions)	Average Deficit per year (Trillons)	Factors____________________________________________________
Biden	-7.71	-1.9275	1 year of Covid recovery cost. Created highest inflation wiping out middle class incomes. Somehow had "worlds greatest economy" but needed to run highest deficits after Covid over - Red flags !! Illegal welfare - $150 billion per year, student loans cancelled, aid to adversaries
Trump	-5.56	-1.39	( Covid lockdown - 2020 ) puts people out of work. US pays people to stay home runs highest single year deficit. Other 3 years - low deficits
Obama	-7.26	-0.9075	Had 2 bad years 2009, 2010 from 2008 Great Recession.
Bush	-2.01	-0.25125	2008 Great Recession year was bad

All true ( and misleading statements )

Trump had the highest deficit in US history in the year 2020 ( AFTER WW2 ) < true. << a Biden claim

Biden has reduced the deficit ( ONLY if you compare 2021 to later years ) < true << a Biden claim

Trump had the highest deficit because of the 2020 Covid shutdown when the government paid money to people and businesses < true << a Trump claim

Biden has increased the deficit ( from 2022 to 2024 ) < true << a Trump claim

Biden ran higher deficits in total than Trump < true << a Trump claim

Biden ran higher deficits on average than Trump < true << a Trump claim

Biden created a 39% higher increase in the US debt than Trump did even though Trump had Covid shutdown and Biden had a recovering economy < true << Jim claim

High deficits run risk of rising rates higher creating problems for consumers, businesses and the economy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-worry-liquidity-worsen-142924937.html

Excellent article and hits good points on debt market liquidity. We did see a lack of demand at a recent auction pushing rates higher. While that has not caused rates to explode up, I agree with the concept that failure by the Democrat administration now to manage debt growth and deficit spending creates a real risk for a "tipping point" in the market at some point in the next months where rates have to jump which would be a big problem for US consumers and businesses. What doesn't make sense is 2020 was the Covid shutdown when the economy went dark and the US paid everyone not to work. The eonomy opened up after that. Biden still managed to increase the US deficits 39% higher than Trump did. Unlike the Biden team, I don't think higher taxes again realistically can do enough to manage the deficit growth they put in place.

Can you afford to let the Federal Government go bankrupt?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/elon-musk-warns-america-going-103300553.html

Both parties are guilty of pushing the US to bankruptcy clearly.

Look at the data above to see who created this mess.

Which party is pushing the US to bankruptcy faster?

Fact check: Biden reduced deficits >> FALSE >> He reduced his deficits from Covid years but runs highest non-Covid deficits in 2023 and 2024

if Democrats are right raising taxes is the answer, why did Trump 2017 corporate tax cut from 35% to 21% increase US tax revenues from corporations?

Maybe a government that stops making you pay more taxes to give money to their favorite causes is a good thing?

Maybe a government that runs higher deficits causing higher inflation and lowering US dollar value as a reserve currency is bad?

Maybe a government that risks your interest rates doubling quickly when foreigners don't want to cover our increasing deficits is bad?

Which Democrat said we need to reduce the Federal deficit as a top priority ?

Who are you going to vote for?

US Economy - Tax Policy

Tax policy can incentivize or de-incentivize different groups of people and business sectors

The incentives influence behavior of people and businesses directly

How do we decide who gets paid by the government and who pays for them?
Why are married people penalized by the tax code compared to domestic partners?
What tax incentives have produced net benefits for the economy? which haven't?
Which incentives produce short-term results at the expense of long-term economic health?

US Real Income Changes by Year adjusted for inflation

PCI by year by region

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. real median personal income

https://fred.stlouisfed.org - real median household income by year

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200838/median-household-income-in-the-united-states/

us-income-per-capita-w1.xlsx

China - Xi - rebuild internet and technology capabilities in Chinese model - 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xi-jinping-urges-global-tech-093000542.html

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday called for global cooperation in the tech sector at the opening of the World Internet Conference (WIC), an annual event that promotes China's model of cyberspace governance, as the country faces growing challenges from the US to limit its access to advanced technologies.

"Together, we can build a cyberspace that is more fair, open, safe and energetic," he wrote.

This year's WIC, hot on the heels of the Communist Party's twice-a-decade national congress, saw the event debut of Li Shulei, Xi's protege and the party's newly minted propaganda chief, who is now in charge of enforcing Beijing's ideology in cyberspace affairs.

"Many people of insight have realised that the current global internet management system still follows imperfect rules and an unreasonable order," Li said in a speech. "The existing cyberspace governance rules are incapable of reflecting the wishes and interests of most countries."

Li also brought up a white paper released on Monday by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) - the country's internet watchdog - which he said is meant to systematically expound China's contributions in "building a community with a shared future in cyberspace".

https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3198750/china-continue-its-carrot-and-stick-approach-big-tech-regulation-cyber-watchdog-says

WEF 2021 Economic Forecast

wef-economy-2021-Stock market bubble bursting poses biggest risk to global economy.pdf

US Biden Plan is a Mess in 2022

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/joe-biden-pandemic-relief-bill-152417930.html

biden-210118-Joe Bidens Pandemic-Relief Bill Is a Mess.pdf

Somehow Democrats have no worries that running larger deficits during a recovery won't create more debt repayment problems for the next generations
1. During recessions is when deficit increases can mitigate impacts, not during recoveries
500B bailout for large Democrat state deficits ( $50B was total Covid economic impact for those states on revenues )
Higher payments than needed now during recovery - some yes, automatic $2000 per family ? no
Should unemployment benefit pay more than working? it does for many now
Should minimum wage be $15 per hour in all states ? in MS is $15 per hour median wage now
Plan keeps people from going to work during a recovery where we now have vaccines etc
Tax rates on corporate can increase but only a limited amount - not what Biden is proposing
The open borders plans will increase costs of supporting illegal immigrants ( adds 500K to 1M more in 2021 than Trump had in 2020 )
China trade goes back to bad deal for America under Obama
Small American businesses and American workers lost favored status under Biden
Forgiving college loans is bad business, immoral and insane
1. if I buy a car and can't pay the loan should tax payers bail me out?
2. If I buy a house and can't pay the mortgage should tax payers bail me out?
3. if I have medical debt should tax payers bail me out?
4. if I can't pay off my credit card should tax payers bail me out? why not ?
5. Will Biden pay those the same amount who couldn't afford college? parents who paid for college ? No
6. Extending loan repayments where needed, forgiving interest are identity politics but less of a moral crime than canceling Federal loan repayments
Trump drove the FDA for faster vaccine approval process, left most distribution to the States
Biden's distribution plans won't make a big difference
States never stepped up in general to vaccine distribution
Trump should have encouraged masks which would have made a small improvement

200227 - Big Weekly Market Drop

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-expert-says-what-many-are-thinking-as-dow-sheds-4100-points-in-a-week-this-market-is-not-normal-2020-02-28?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Drop signifies four things (though his tongue may be planted firmly in his cheek on the last item):

A significant change in economic fundamentals
A significant increase in ‘risk’ to the fundamentals
The market’s financial plumbing is breaking down
A meteor or alien invasion to end global existence has been spotted but its arrival is unknown (or a virus pandemic)

Black Swan over reaction

Investors are worried that the outbreak of COVID-19, the infectious disease that originated in Wuhan, China, late last year, will hurt global economies and supply chains if the illness isn’t contained.

Also, Bernie fear will grow over the next 8 months hurting the market

government may kick in surprise plans to help stanch the bleeding in markets. Those might include:

• A health-care action plan

• An announcement of financial support by the Treasury Department

• Other fiscal stimulus packages

• An emergency interest-rate cut by the Fed

Macro Trends toward 2020

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4281031-puzzle-pieces-finally-come-together?ifp=0

We like the current easing environment, it implies the Fed is likely ahead of the curve on a recession, which also suggests the recession can be delayed, possibly for several years. Once again, assets to own here are inflation proof GSMs, Bitcoin and other select digital assets, certain stocks in certain sectors.

However, many bonds, and large cash positions will likely get eaten up by inflation, so I don’t expect the old 60-40 stocks/bonds allocation to hold up well at all over the next few years. Our Modern Diversified Portfolio had returned roughly 38.5% in H1 of this year, and I expect similar returns should follow going forward.

Potential Value Opportunities

OECD CLI - composite of leading indicators - find periods of correlation w market trends

https://www.oecd.org/sdd/compositeleadingindicatorsclifrequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm

Find historical correlations to SP500 pricing

Look at CLI offsets to SPX

Look at BCI and CCI correlations to SPX

See if a triple confirmation has value up or down on trends / trend change

CLI

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/composite-leading-indicator-cli.htm

5. Where can I download CLI data?

CLI can be downloaded from the dataset "Composite Leading Indicators (MEI)" in OECD.Stat Extracts. In OECD.Stat Extracts you can modify the current data selection by using the top navigation bar to select specific "Subject", "Country" and "Time & Frequency". The data can be exported to Excel. For long time series we recommend using the text format. You may also consult the OECD.Stat Extracts' user guide.

6. Why is there a two months lag in data availability?

Most input data for a given month "t" are available at month "t+2". This is the reason why there is a 2 months lag between the reference date and the publication date of the data.

9. What are the components of the CLI?

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (GDP) at turning points. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. To get the list of component series for each country click here.

BCI - Business Confidence Index

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/business-confidence-index-bci.htm#indicator-chart

CCI - Consumer Confidence Index

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm#indicator-chart

Potential Challenges

The Economy, Employment & Jobs - EEJ

Where can taxes be raised without hurting US jobs, competitiveness, working and middle class?

Thanks for that great question.

Look at potential Trump programs in Project 2025 – Clearly not an answer - start over

There some minuses for Trump tax cuts in 2017 but they DID reduce working and middle class taxes significantly ( contrary to Democrat claims )

Look at Biden's proposed tax policies - Clearly will kill jobs, trade and hit working, middle class families

The Biden tax proposals >> "Rich pay their fair share? >> Yes they could raise your taxes too, hurt your jobs, income"

Reduced deficit spending is key to limiting tax increases - Trump won, Biden lost there

The concept of managing expenses is 100% absent from the Biden team

That's how your family builds wealth, protects their future >> grow your income, cut expenses and invest savings for the future

Not the Biden team - they know better than you

Biden Tax Plan >>

The President’s plan delivers tax cuts for families with children and working Americans, invests in America, and reduces deficits by trillions of dollars by enacting a new billionaire minimum tax and cracking down on multinational companies shifting jobs and profits overseas.

Biden Tax Policies Sound simple >> They aren't – check the details of who gets hurt

Yes tax policies and laws SHOULD be reviewed regularly to see if they can be improved to benefit the whole economy – not as a transfer payments scheme to fund more welfare programs that hurts the economy and working, middle class taxpayers.

Biden claim >> " they ( Republicans ) would rather add trillions to the national debt" << fact checked: false

Factcheck >> Including the Covid shutdown, Trump increased the deficit 5.56 Trillion. Without Covid shutdown and a "great economy" Biden managed to increase the deficit 7.85 Trillion - over 2 Trillion more ---- funny how facts don't support the Democrat claims - 100% false

Biden claim >> "no one earning less than $400,000 will pay an additional penny in federal taxes". << fact checked: unclear

Factcheck >> you can set tax laws and policies. you can't guarantee that impacts. You can define the proposed impacts. If your policies also drop real incomes by 4%, raise inflation, reduce unemployment with lower levels of labor participation and higher welfare, don't provide sustainable jobs, add millions more to the welfare rolls through open borders you aren't helping the working and middle class families

Policy - corporate minimum tax is 15% – maybe ! should it be raised? study the impacts first IF it doesn't create a flight to lower tax countries, maybe

Democrats always favor higher taxes on everyone but poor people. They never would have reduced the US corporate income tax below 35%. Trump cut that rate to 21% which INCREASED US TAX revenues as companies brought income back from overseas countries because our tax rates were lower. Biden wants that rate set to 28%. Today the US corporate tax rate is 21% and the OECD country tax rates are over 23%. Can you raise US corporate tax rates to 28% WITHOUT LOSING TAX REVENUE? Clearly no. Biden did not do the homework. Setting a corporate tax rate 2% higher gets US rates equal to the average in other countries which can provide some added revenue with little risk to lowering overall tax revenue unlike Biden's proposal

Policy - crackdown on multi-national tax avoidance - careful ! this has been done with more negative than positive results - not recommended

Other countries followed the same mistake creating net losses for their economies with higher tax rates but total tax revenues go down - learn from England's tax history. IF corporate rates are correctly set to match the average rates in OECD countries there will be less reason for tax avoidance. At the current low rate of 21%, the US is the best developed country for companies to invest in. Yes policing little tax havens that are setup to hide funds is not a bad idea BUT should be coordinated through the UN.

Policy - cut tax breaks for executive pay - bad idea factcheck>> use correct metrics

Factcheck >> executive compensation tax plan impacts. stock options are NOT income. They are only a right. To create value, the options must be exercised ( the employee has to PAY to turn the option into real stock ). salary, bonuses and stock grants ARE income correctly subject to taxation.

limits that set executive pay to X times the "compensation of the lowest-paid employee" are nuts. Any limit should be probably tied to Y times the "median pay of all full-time employees (? ) ".

Policy - eliminate the Trump 2017 tax cuts - careful ! those Trump tax cuts lowered income taxes for working and middle class families

Factcheck >> check impacts & revisit those tax cuts and consider reducing SOME of the tax cuts for individuals with incomes greater than $1 million per year

Policy - quadruple stock buyback tax - careful ! cutting value to shareholders hurts investments AND stockholders both

Factcheck >> why not HELP ALL taxpayers benefit from investments and incentivize that better? Where do union benefits come from? Stock market investments. Where do IRA and 401K incomes come from? Stock market investments. Why not HELP working and middle class taxpayers benefit more from those investments – the Secure Act 2.0 ONLY helped a little. Focus on the REAL results of those bills instead of pre-determining what's fair ( The Democrat model )

Policy - cut tax preferences for private vs commercial jet travel - careful ! there is no advantage now. Just another new tax to hurt companies, jobs

Factcheck >>

eliminate a tax break that gives preferential treatment to corporate jets, compared to commercial aircraft. Yes costs of corporate jets are expensed like any other transportation costs INCLUDING use of commercial airlines. No special advantages here. This is just another tax increase to hurt companies ( and jobs )

Policy - make the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes -

Factcheck >> there are MANY taxes paid by people and corporations now. Who doesn't pay tax? Governments and registered non-profits. The existing tax law allows some breaks on the progressive tax rates for investment ( generally a good thing for the economy, companies and jobs ). Higher income people pay higher taxes BUT their are tax policies that do allow some to pay lower taxes than working or middle class on earned income. As Buffett says, there should be minimum tax rates for rich people on EARNED INCOME ( NOT assets as Elizabeth Warren which is really just wealth confiscation for redistribution - another immoral proposal ). Is.a rich person someone with EARNED INCOME in a single year greater than $X?? ( 1 million? 10 million?) Who pays US income taxes now by income? In 2021, the bottom half of taxpayers earned 10.4 percent of total AGI and paid 2.3 percent of all federal individual income taxes. The top 1 percent earned 26.3 percent of total AGI and paid 45.8 percent of all federal income taxes. My thoughts?

yes there should be a minimum income tax rate on EARNED INCOMES over $1 million

yes keep the current progressive tax system that makes higher earners pay more income tax

yes keep child care credits for the first 3 children. After that reduce, child care tax incentives for additional children progressively. No reason everyone else should pay for someone's larger family without limit.

yes eliminate dual FICA payroll taxes on 1099 workers that exists now

yes keep FICA and medicare payroll taxes rates flat at the current 7.65% - no one can afford higher rates - that's a given

yes add a SMALL FICA tax of 2% on incomes OVER the Maxmium Taxable FICA wage limit we currently have. Medicare tax of 1.45% already has no limits. The added 2% FICA tax along with normal modifications to retirement age and careful indexing of COLA benefit increases can make the Social Security system solvent or almost solvent for ALL: young and old people

yes restrict SSI payments to US citizens and legal immigrants only. SSI payments are typically almost 95% of Social Security at the bottom levels for illegal immigrants. Combined with open borders Biden, 90% of the 8 billion people in the world would be economically better off with US taxpayer welfare – a big problem.

yes revisit legal immigration policy to see how many good, well vetted, law abiding legal immigrants can help the economy and be assimilated into the US successfully each year. We average 1 million per year now. Should that be 500K or 1500K ? It's what is right for the country, the economy and US citizens is the key - NOT how many want to come here.

yes add a new legal work visa program that allows companies to sponsor temporary work visas up to 12 months that can be filled by registered guest workers after they met criteria showing those jobs couldn't be filled with domestic workers and electronically enforced on workers and companies. Guest workers receive pay but are not eligible for any form of welfare.

Missing Biden Policy - help ALL people participate successfully in sustainable economic work that benefits them and the economy

Factcheck >> labor participation rates would improve. real personal median incomes would improve. the economy grows WITHOUT adding millions more immigrants that need taxpayer welfare. the best social program in the world is a good job that provides meaning in people's lives and benefits others directly or indirectly.