Key Points

1. economy depends on Trump 2020 odds
2. evaluate efficient frontier as returns over volatility and sharpe ratio
3. OECD CLI - composite of leading indicators may have some correlation w future market prices in some scenarios

References

Key Concepts

Macro Trends toward 2020

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4281031-puzzle-pieces-finally-come-together?ifp=0

We like the current easing environment, it implies the Fed is likely ahead of the curve on a recession, which also suggests the recession can be delayed, possibly for several years. Once again, assets to own here are inflation proof GSMs, Bitcoin and other select digital assets, certain stocks in certain sectors.

However, many bonds, and large cash positions will likely get eaten up by inflation, so I don’t expect the old 60-40 stocks/bonds allocation to hold up well at all over the next few years. Our Modern Diversified Portfolio had returned roughly 38.5% in H1 of this year, and I expect similar returns should follow going forward.

Elliot Wave Technical Analysis - SA - Avi Gilburt

concept is fundamental analysis and big economic events don't explain a lot of price moves

market is about changing expectations from current price and valuation levels 

Schiller CAPE market levels vs industry / company valuation levels outlook

I wrote a six-part series on the basics of our Fibonacci Pinball method of Elliott Wave analysis a number of years ago:

• Part-1
• Part-2
• Part-3
• Part-4
• Part-5
• Part-6

Key Technical Indicators

Bollinger Bands

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp

Simple Moving Average

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sma.asp

Exponential Moving Average

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-simple-exponential-moving-average/

MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp

RSI - Relative Strength Indicator 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/042114/overbought-or-oversold-use-relative-strength-index-find-out.asp

VWAP - Volume Weighted Average Price

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp

Potential Value Opportunities

OECD CLI - composite of leading indicators - find periods of correlation w market trends

https://www.oecd.org/sdd/compositeleadingindicatorsclifrequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm

Find historical correlations to SP500 pricing

Look at CLI offsets to SPX

Look at BCI and CCI correlations to SPX

See if a triple confirmation has value up or down on trends / trend change

CLI

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/composite-leading-indicator-cli.htm

5. Where can I download CLI data?

CLI can be downloaded from the dataset "Composite Leading Indicators (MEI)" in OECD.Stat Extracts. In OECD.Stat Extracts you can modify the current data selection by using the top navigation bar to select specific "Subject", "Country" and  "Time & Frequency". The data can be exported to Excel. For long time series we recommend using the text format. You may also consult the OECD.Stat Extracts' user guide.

6. Why is there a two months lag in data availability?

Most input data for a given month "t" are available at month "t+2". This is the reason why there is a 2 months lag between the reference date and the publication date of the data.

9. What are the components of the CLI?

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (GDP) at turning points.  The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. To get the list of component series for each country click here.

BCI - Business Confidence Index

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/business-confidence-index-bci.htm#indicator-chart

CCI - Consumer Confidence Index

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm#indicator-chart

Potential Challenges

Candidate Solutions

Step-by-step guide for Example

sample code block

Recommended Next Steps

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