m Technical Analysis

Key Points

  1. economy depends on Trump 2020 odds
  2. evaluate efficient frontier as returns over volatility and sharpe ratio
  3. OECD CLI - composite of leading indicators may have some correlation w future market prices in some scenarios


References

Reference_description_with_linked_URLs_________________________Notes___________________________________________________________________
AMSGPSL - 4 - Grow concepts
m Fundamental Analysis
i Invest Strategies
m Invest Markets
Invest Tools




https://seekingalpha.com/article/4281031-puzzle-pieces-finally-come-together?ifp=0Economy moving forward ok if Trump stay in and Republicans hold Senate and inflation will increase shifting returns
file:///C:/Users/Jim%20Mason/Google%20Drive/_save/Finance/invest/analysis/technical/Guide-to-Technical-Analysis-sjc963.pdfTechnical Guide w trading strategies

7 Chart Patterns

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQbXlJQTlDTE5POUk

7 Chart Patterns
https://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/tools-of-the-trade/7 Technical Indicators for Market Trade Plans - investopedia




https://www.marketgeeks.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/mg_swing_trading_profits_ebook.pdf

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1wSY2oBkvMvnOjS4nF5t5lr0KleR694VL

Trading trends - short term book

ok for credit or debit spreads st

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1NXWmmMWrfmjJE57ua3aYdIlTO3h-CQQb

Price Pattern Trading book

short to medium price trneds

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1cAxIOfaExi4XsMbc9f7pNG5Z1DWaxmlz

Swing Trade for Profit

short term trend trades

https://drive.google.com/open?id=16I0sRIHSEIAO5eNpYeN3useQShs202s6Options Trading Secrets
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1JCQcGezG62uPBW9uCpd5VlwWvbGseicJIndicators - over bought, over sold
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1QEwk4CTT2tZKGkRXK-JTG28obmLugtMoWays to trade support and resistance
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQR3NRdXRxcUlCcUUVolatility Trading
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQWEN2NWlLbVpBT0UFidelity Advanced trading types
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQaVc1NXFrUmxyWE0Technical Analysis Trading Book - indicators, candlesticks
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1orAyQdkdJnwxoYfe4A59VfkFvySf9cVsOptions Trading Techniques Book
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1l1Lpzmyuciz5fc1IhSLNzegeaUHx-LfQHow I Trade Options - R Scott
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1D6OGh-cXFT8BqZozYyxgCYKLaHJjLbH4Fidelity - Options Trading Details book
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQbElRTzdUTnNGcHMOptions Playbook


https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CIp7MDaMq7vPOaXrSsw9QBHB6hZsFEXoTrading with the RSI book
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQd01qVVNOeTFvWFEPut trades on Advance Declines
https://drive.google.com/open?id=10wfMXh9Okwo6lgmmBTLm7DNiTQIKzivZTrading Elliott Wave Patterns


Metrics


https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pedrolula_plotando-fronteira-eficiente-via-r-usando-activity-6567377774560976897-l6KQReturns given volatility and sharpe ratio define efficient frontier for investments in R
https://www.oecd.org/sdd/compositeleadingindicatorsclifrequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htmOECD CLI - composite of leading indicators - find periods of correlation w market trends


Tools
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxqKQGV-b4WQS19MVUVVbktPWTgAutomated Trading systems



















Key Concepts


Macro Trends toward 2020

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4281031-puzzle-pieces-finally-come-together?ifp=0

We like the current easing environment, it implies the Fed is likely ahead of the curve on a recession, which also suggests the recession can be delayed, possibly for several years. Once again, assets to own here are inflation proof GSMs, Bitcoin and other select digital assets, certain stocks in certain sectors.

However, many bonds, and large cash positions will likely get eaten up by inflation, so I don’t expect the old 60-40 stocks/bonds allocation to hold up well at all over the next few years. Our Modern Diversified Portfolio had returned roughly 38.5% in H1 of this year, and I expect similar returns should follow going forward.



Elliot Wave Technical Analysis - SA - Avi Gilburt


concept is fundamental analysis and big economic events don't explain a lot of price moves

market is about changing expectations from current price and valuation levels 

Schiller CAPE market levels vs industry / company valuation levels outlook

I wrote a six-part series on the basics of our Fibonacci Pinball method of Elliott Wave analysis a number of years ago:


Key Technical Indicators





Bollinger Bands

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp


Simple Moving Average

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sma.asp


Exponential Moving Average

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-simple-exponential-moving-average/


MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp


RSI - Relative Strength Indicator 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/042114/overbought-or-oversold-use-relative-strength-index-find-out.asp


VWAP - Volume Weighted Average Price

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp




Potential Value Opportunities


OECD CLI - composite of leading indicators - find periods of correlation w market trends

https://www.oecd.org/sdd/compositeleadingindicatorsclifrequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm


Find historical correlations to SP500 pricing


Look at CLI offsets to SPX

Look at BCI and CCI correlations to SPX

See if a triple confirmation has value up or down on trends / trend change

CLI

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/composite-leading-indicator-cli.htm

5. Where can I download CLI data?

CLI can be downloaded from the dataset "Composite Leading Indicators (MEI)" in OECD.Stat Extracts. In OECD.Stat Extracts you can modify the current data selection by using the top navigation bar to select specific "Subject", "Country" and  "Time & Frequency". The data can be exported to Excel. For long time series we recommend using the text format. You may also consult the OECD.Stat Extracts' user guide.

6. Why is there a two months lag in data availability?

Most input data for a given month "t" are available at month "t+2". This is the reason why there is a 2 months lag between the reference date and the publication date of the data.

9. What are the components of the CLI?

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (GDP) at turning points.  The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. To get the list of component series for each country click here.


BCI - Business Confidence Index

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/business-confidence-index-bci.htm#indicator-chart


CCI - Consumer Confidence Index

https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm#indicator-chart


Potential Challenges



Candidate Solutions



Step-by-step guide for Example



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Recommended Next Steps